Mamma Mia!

February 15, 2012

Courtesy of Eurostat and Bloomberg comes this chart correlating the current credit default swap spread for certain sovereign debt with the percentage of that particular country’s male population between the ages of 25 and 34 that lives with their parents.

Delayed Adulthood Caused by Economic Crisis

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Initially, I struggled a little bit with how instructive this chart really is, wondering if there were other explanations for the high rate of mamma’s boys out there. For example, I think that it’s fair to say that the countries with the highest percentage of men at home is that they have strong familial traditions and it might not be unusual to have extended families living together. However, a recent visit with an authentic Greek friend of mine (first generation American with a home and regular travel back to the home country) indicates that the high number of home boys isn’t simply familial roots. Large numbers of Greeks are leaving their homes in the cities and returning to their more suburban or rural roots to ride out the economic troubles with their families. “There’s nothing left for them in the cities,” she said. Not to mention the brain drain that’s underway in these countries in which those that can find employment in other places are doing it and abandoning Greece altogether. The implications of these trends by themselves point to a generation of difficulties ahead for these countries, even if these were their only problems.


(Not So) Random Thoughts on the Debt Ceiling and the State of the Crisis

July 14, 2011

  • This is a crisis. A worldwide crisis.
  • Markets love testing the will of central bankers and giving them a number on how much they’re willing to spend to bail out Greece (or Spain or Italy) will only act as a challenge.
  • The only reason U.S. financial markets aren’t more tumultuous as the debt ceiling nonsense plays out is that their more worried about Europe blowing apart.  Not the Europe blowing up is a bigger deal than the U.S. defaulting, but it’s more immediate.  There’s, what? two whole weeks before they have to worry about a U.S. default.  Eons in trading time.
  • I think some in Congress (mostly Republicans) think that they can “fix” missing the deadline by simply passing something after the fact that raises the limit and returns the situation to the status quo ante.  That’s wrong.  Once we cross the Rubicon of default and (presumably) get downgraded, there’s no turning back.  Once a borrower indicates a willingness to consider not paying its debts, that borrower gets treated differently in the credit markets.  You can’t unring the bell. [That sound you hear is my favorite writer, George Orwell, hater of idiom, spinning in his grave at my use of two, no three! in one little bullet point. –ed.]
  • I stink at poker, but somehow I think that I’d like to play poker against President Obama.  Less so Senator Mitch McConnell.
  • Trying to negotiate with Rep. Eric Cantor (R-Petulant) reminds me of those discussions we had with our kids when they were twelve.
  • Being a big believer in the Law of Unintended Consequences, I continue to be very worried about this situation, and that fear grows with every passing day.
  • The combination of the Europe situation and our own a) immediate problems with potential default and b) our long-term structural deficits leave me fearful that we’re in for an extended period of austerity, slow- to no-growth, increasing distress among the populace and general trouble.
  • What’s happening in Europe is the sort of thing that used to start wars.
  • So if you think Europe is a bad place to invest and the U.S. is about to default, where are you going to put your money?  Corporate bonds?  (Communist) China?
  • The sinking, awful feeling I have is that this all is going to get much worse before it gets any better.