Thinking about underwear (in an uncreepy way)

March 6, 2010

Why does underwear come with ironing instructions? If Richard Pryor was right that cocaine is God’s way of telling you that you have too much money, then surely ironing your undershorts is God’s way of telling you that you have too much time.


Revised Marketing Approach Required

March 4, 2010

When you’re walking down the street it’s uncommon for strangers to come up and want to talk to you, but it occasionally happens.  Could be Greenpeace, the ASPCA, a political candidate or a panhandler.

So today I’m walking down the street in a little bit of a crowd and there’s such a guy up ahead of me that’s looking to talk to people as they pass by.

Guy:  “Can I ask you a question?”

Passerby:  “You just did,” as he keeps walking.


More write-downs ahead for banks

March 4, 2010

Be afraid. Be very afraid.

I know this is getting tedious but, I can’t help it.

Today’s Wall Street Journal included a story about how home mortgage refinancing volumes aren’t as high as expected, even though interest rates are low and being kept low by the Federal Reserve.  The premise of the story is:  there’s money being left on the table by borrowers who aren’t refinancing.

But buried in the article is a reason to continue to be very concerned about bank balance sheets and the write-offs yet to come.

John Albright, a retired Navy officer in Manassas, Va., hasn’t been able to refinance because the value of his home has plunged. He figures its market value is now around $275,000, but he and his wife still owe more than $500,000 on their mortgage.

Their refinance application was turned down last year because they lacked equity in the home. He says his lender told him he could refinance only if he could come up with about $200,000 to pay down his mortgage. So they are stuck with an interest rate of about 6.5% at a time when his wife’s income has declined. “We’re going from paycheck to paycheck, but what can you do?” Mr. Albright says.

Here we have a couple who appears to be still paying on their mortgage, but has no hope of refinancing into a lower rate because the amount they owe exceeds the market value of their home by a huge amount.  The Albrights are stuck in this house until and unless one of two things happen:  either home prices skyrocket or they convince their bank to reduce the principal balance of the mortgages to something closer to the current market price, and they might only do this in a “short sale” if  the Albrights want to move.

This is obviously bad news for the Albrights, but it’s equally bad for their lender.  This mortgage is likely still being shown on the banks books as “current” since the Albrights appear based on the article to be making payments.  But if you were to mark this loan today, you’d have to say that there’s an embedded loss for the lender of $225,000–the difference between the current mortgage and the market value.  I’m feel safe in saying that whoever holds this paper hasn’t recognized this loss yet simply because the loan is still paying.

All of which is a long way of saying that the problems in residential real estate are starting to feel “perpetual” (even though they won’t be, it just feels like it), and there are more losses buried on banks’ balance sheets (as if we need to be reminded of that!).


The looming tax increase

March 1, 2010

The closer you look, the smaller it gets

This has nothing to do with Democrats or Republicans or who is president.

Today’s Wall Street Journal shows that the effect of the financial crisis on states and municipalities (and taxpayers) is only starting to be felt. As state pension funds cut investment return forecasts (to reduce the need to take excess portfolio risks), the difference must be made up by taxpayers.

At Calpers, about 75% of payouts come from the pension fund’s investments, with the remaining 25% tied to contributions from California governments and employees. According to Pew, a hypothetical $100 billion pension fund that achieved a 7.75% return rate for 10 years would have about $211 billion. With a 6% rate, the same fund would grow to $179 billion—a difference of $32 billion.

That $32 billion will come on the backs of California taxpayers.

Note to IL residents: If Calpers is cutting from 7.75% to as low as 6%, consider that IL is still at 8.6% on an $8.7 billion asset pool.  If IL cut to 6%, that’s about a $4bn addition to an existing $45bn unfunded pension liability gap.

We’ve made promises to workers that we can’t afford to keep.  The Pew Center on the States reports that the total gap is about $1 trillion ($1,000,000,000,000).  Those promises were made to people that are critical to our survival,both literally and figuratively (e.g., firemen, policemen, teachers), who are relatively low on the pay scale and who aren’t eligible for social security.  It’s not as simple as cutting the payouts to the recipients.  The whole social contract needs to be rethought.

As being known as something of a cynic, I was disappointed in myself that I was continue to be surprised and disappointed by the lack of vision and the unwillingness of our elected officials to tackle the tough problems we face, preferring instead to focus on those less difficult issues that will offend no one and help keep them in office.  In the meantime, the problems created from when we were seemingly awash in money and nothing bad would ever happen to us, continue to get worse and the hole gets deeper.

The first rule of being in a hole is “stop digging”.  As a nation, our elected officials always seem to have shovels in their hands. (And that’s not a crack at the very necessary stimulus plan.)


A Little Insight into Forced Repurchases from Fannie and Freddie

February 8, 2010

The fact that the mortgage market and the GSEs are screwed up is not a new story, but these requests for repurchases from Fannie, Freddie and the mortgage insurers is  surely one to keep an eye on particularly if you are an investor in bank stocks.  (I am an involuntary investor in bank stock as a result of receiving a good chunk of my compensation in the form of unvested restricted bank stock.  If it weren’t for that, I wouldn’t touch these stocks with my worst enemy’s money, owing to the lack of transparency on the marking of assets.

One little-discussed aspect of this is that Freddie doesn’t do at the time of purchase (or at least didn’t as of 14 months ago when I last cared about this topic).  They rely on the automated approval engines at the time of purchase, then once a mortgage defaults, they go back and figure out if they should have bought it in the first place.  If it fails that test, they seek reimbursement from the party that sold them the mortgage.  Unfortunately for us taxpayers, there are many originators that are no longer in business, so there’s no one to put the defaulted mortgage back to.  In the case of the big bank mortgage shops, these levels of repurchases are, theoretically, being reserved against in current earnings figures, but those reserves are only as good as their current default estimates and reliant upon an expost facto review of the original underwriting.  Many articles have pointed out, the underwriting being done during the go-go days was often quite shoddy, both in terms of creditworthiness of borrowers and documentation.    Original loan and underwriting documentation was either lost, faked or never existed.  These practices, from which very few sellers are immune, make it pretty easy pickings for Fannie and Freddie to argue that the defaulted mortgage their holding should be repurchased.


What the Ancient Greeks knew about Brett Favre

January 26, 2010

Is "Viking" the Scandanavian word for "hubris"?

My favorite football commentator, Gregg Easterbrook (author and general smart guy) in his guise as ESPN.com’s Tuesday Morning Quarterback shows us not one but two lessons of Ancient Greece in his analysis of the Vikings / Saints game on Sunday.

The first example is of hubris in the posting of the picture attached above on the Vikings’ website during the fourth quarter of the game.  Aristotle and his boys would have loved that.  Considered the greatest crime of the ancient Greek world, the hero performs some act  out of  great pride that leads to his/her death or downfall.  Well done, Vikings front office!

TMQ provides the second lesson:

Hamartia. The “tragic flaw” described by Aristotle: A leader cannot control his own inner shortcoming, which causes him to achieve the reverse of what he desired. In “Antigone,” the king, Creon, tells himself he is acting in the interest of the city, when actually he is acting to glorify his own ego — this hamartia destroys him. Brett Favre comes up a bit short of a character in ancient Thebes, but on Sunday he was brought low by hamartia all the same. It was not enough for Favre’s team to reach the Super Bowl — he had to get the credit. Game tied with 19 seconds remaining, Favre scrambled at about the New Orleans 40-yard line, with open field ahead of him. All he needed to do was run a few yards, hook-slide, call timeout, and the Vikings’ strong-legged kicker, Ryan Longwell, had a solid chance to win the NFC championship. But the credit had to go to Favre; he had to throw a spectacular pass at the end, so television announcers would swoon. So he heave-hoed a dramatic across-the-field pass. It was intercepted, and the Saints won in overtime.

Perhaps you are thinking, “It was just a dumb mistake, and the whole thing happened in a couple of seconds.” No. Two years of Favre’s life built up to that moment. For two years, Favre has insisted that entire NFL franchises, the Jets and the Vikings, become thralls to his celebrity. He has used his stature to demand, demand, demand — the crux of the demands are always attention and publicity for himself. Now he is brought low. In two of the past three seasons, Favre has lost in the NFC Championship Game. Each time, his team seemed poised to win at the end; each time, Favre’s final play was a disastrous interception. And each of those title losses eventually came in overtime — to punish Favre for his hamartia, twice the football gods allowed him to come so close, so close, then denied him. Favre has been brought so low, he is now being laughed at in Wisconsin, and he has only himself to blame. Aristotle would not be surprised by the ending of the Favre saga. If, of course, it was the ending.

Hit the guy in the right flat that’s standing 5 yards from any other opponent and he steps out of bounds and you win.  But no.  And now it’s vacation time down on the bayou for ol’ Brett, and time for another round of “will he or won’t he”.  Can’t wait for that.


Jason Reitman, “pretty good” and pretty dumb

January 15, 2010

Dumb

In the doctor’s office today, I picked up the January 18th edition of Time, a publication I rarely read. I made it as far as page ten, for it was there that I read a column titled “10 questions for Jason Reitman“. From what I gathered, this is a regularly occurring item in which readers lob softball questions into a celebrity and (s)he parries them with rapier wit.

Having seen and enjoyed some of Mr. Reitman’s work, especially his latest “Up in the Air” (a film that I enjoyed principally for two reasons: the scene in which Ryan Bingham teaches his young colleague how best to navigate the security line at the airport and the presence of George Clooney).

Softball question, glib answer. Softball question, glib answer. Reitman was nine for nine. It was the answer to the tenth question that caught me.

Q: Have you ever been fired? (Jessie K., WASHINGTON)

A: I have actually never been fired. It turns out I’m pretty good at what I do.


What did he say? Being “pretty good” prevents him from being fired? This is so wrong on at least two levels that I can hardly contain myself.

Jason, son of famous filmmaker Ivan, Reitman appears to have never done anything outside the film industry in which his father is wonderfully successful. Perhaps if he spent 10 years as “Jason Smith” instead, he might have a better idea of the way things work. For this he gets my favorite insult to priviledged people: He was born on third base and thinks he hit a triple.

Jason, son of Ivan, makes a movie about firing people, yet all he seems to have learned out of the process is that sucking up to American Airlines gets you good perks, not the fact that there are many, many people who were not merely “pretty good” at their job who find themselves fired and out of work through no fault of their own.

In the words of a character in one of his dad’s best movies, “Nice going, asshole.”



Running up the score at Yates High

January 12, 2010

Congratulations to Greg Wise whose Yates High School basketball team beat Lee High by the unbelievable score of  170-35, in a game that was marred (understandably) by a second half brawl.

According to this Houston Chronicle article, Yates was leading 100-12 at half-time.

I coached my son’s travel team (a B level squad) a couple years ago, and we encountered a team from Mt. Prospect that was instantly recognizable as much more talented that we were.  They belonged in the A side of the league without question.

They half-court zone trapped us and our kids had trouble getting the ball past the free throw line-extended.  We tried a couple different screens and things, but their kids were bigger, stronger and quicker.  They built about a 2o point lead in the first quarter, shooting only lay-ups as I recall.  The lead continued to grow and the press stayed on.  I got teed-up by the officials early on who also weren’t giving our kids a break despite the score.  My kids parents were hollering at the other coach (who was a hired gun, not a parent).  I thought long and hard about pulling my kids off the floor at half-time and simply leaving the gym, but I worried about what message that would send to them and how much grief I’d get from the parents.

Into the second half we went, with a couple other things in mind, thinking that our opponents would be sporting and run a little zone or a man-to-man or something other than the half-court zone trap, secure in the knowledge that they were going to win the game by a comfortable margin no matter what defense they played.

Out we went.  Zone trap.  They zone trapped for the entire game.  I couldn’t believe it.  No relief, no mercy, no sportsmanship.  There was nearly a fist fight with a couple parents and my fellow coach.  The other guy was smirking and proud of his kids.  He cited some of the same things that Coach Wise noted, too.  Which of course doesn’t make it right.

I was very proud of our kids for putting up with it, and have felt bad for not having spared them the humiliation since.  If I had it to do again, I’d have loaded up the bus at the half and explained later.  I’d forgotten how bad that felt until I read the story of Yates and Lee.  No kid signs up for that.  The presence of “national rankings” for high school doesn’t help this and this clown that coaches the Yates team is just trying to build his cred.  He should be ashamed (but isn’t) and disciplined and maybe fired, but, it being Texas where the even the assholes are bigger, he probably won’t.


In through the out door at Newark Liberty

January 4, 2010

These doors don't exist at Newark Liberty or other airports. An outrage.

A guy walks into Terminal C at Newark Liberty through the exit, disappears into the masses, resulting in the entire airport being put into lock-down, grounding flights for six hours.  If you’ve never been there, the exit is no different than it is in many other airports in this country.  It’s nothing more than a doorway that’s the size of the hallway (i.e., no threshold, no barrier) that’s “guarded” by a distracted TSA employee.  Wide open access.

In a world where every major building in the United States has some kind of gating mechanism before you can get to the elevators, why WHY are these hallways still accessible?  For all them money they spent upgrading the screening area at LaGuardia in the last couple years, no one thought to make the exit from the terminal inaccessible to people trying to swim upstream.  The same is true at O’Hare and, apparently, Newark Liberty.

This is outrageous.


How the AARP discount seeps into the subconcious

December 24, 2009

Yesterday in the hardware store, an old guy shows up at the checkout counter with two of the most expensive bags of ice melter (FKA “salt”) in the store. The cashier rings it up and announces the total as $66.74. The old man’s face registers his shock at the price. He immediately strikes the pose taught to us by popular culture: VICTIM!

“I’m an old man. Don’t I get some kind of discount? Do you know how often I’m in here?”

Clerk: No.

Old man: Can I talk to the manager?

I didn’t have time to hang around and watch how it worked out, but if I had, I probably would have said something stupid like, “where’s my unemployed discount?” or “isn’t that your Lexus in the parking lot?” or something.